As of March 23, 2026, the technical setup for EURUSD suggests that the pair may be nearing a bottom after its prolonged decline from January highs. The short-term trend remains bearish, but signs of stabilization have emerged, raising the odds of a corrective rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 14—close to oversold territory below 30—lending weight to this view. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, however, is negative and signals that sellers are unlikely to loosen their grip in the medium term.
Now, let’s turn to the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. According to the latest data, big market fishes cut their long euro positions by 20% over the past week and appear to be on the verge of flipping to net short. Figures released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in late March reveal a significant shift in institutional sentiment. Over the past seven days, net long positions among large speculators have fallen from +84,000 to +67,000 contracts—the steepest weekly drop in eight months. In other words, investors who had bet on the euro’s rally above 1.20 are now trying to cut their losses, exiting trades before further downside occurs. If another 25,000 to 30,000 contracts are liquidated next week, the net position will turn negative. Historically, when speculators move to net short—where shorts outnumber longs—this often coincides with an accelerated decline of 200 to 300 pips in the pair.
So, the market seems to be in a “cleanup” phase, with geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz still simmering and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish narrative unfolding. The European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast, is poised to be dovish due to Germany’s weak economic performance. As a result, the US dollar looks more attractive to investors under current circumstances, offering a higher yield.
If large players fully move to a net short position, a medium-term bearish trend, with a 1.1250 target, will be confirmed.
The overall recommendation is to sell EURUSD. Profits should be taken at 1.1250. Stop Loss could be set at 1.1700.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
