Selling EURUSD upon breaching 1.14000

Fundamental and macroeconomic factors keep weighing heavily on the EURUSD pair.

As a major energy importer, Europe has taken a serious inflation hit under current conditions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March. What’s more troubling, the region’s key economies recorded the most significant increases. Germany, for instance, saw a rise to 2.7%, and Spain to 3.3%. These figures are well above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2%, prompting investors to revise their 2026 forecasts. Now, they expect higher consumer prices (2.6%) and slower GDP growth.

Although the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2.0% at its March meeting, officials struck a hawkish tone. Market participants have since rethought their outlook for the regulator’s monetary path as well. At least two hikes are now anticipated this year. However, these moves are unlikely to offset the euro’s structural weakness, as the energy shock continues to ripple through various segments of the economy—from sluggish consumer demand and fragile business confidence to depressed household real incomes.

Across the Atlantic, the story is entirely different. Soaring oil prices have actually worked in favor of the US, a net energy exporter. This has bolstered the dollar's safe‑haven status and lifted Treasury yields amid global uncertainty. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained borrowing costs at the same level but confirmed rising inflation risks. Under these conditions, there is no rush to lower interest rates. The American regulator hasn’t even ruled out the probability of hikes if necessary. The widening policy gap between the ECB and the Fed has added another tailwind for the greenback.

The technical setup points to emerging support at 1.14000. However, this level could buckle under the weight of fundamental factors. Once breached, the downtrend is likely to target 1.11000 next.

The ultimate recommendation is to sell EURUSD if the 1.14000 support level gives up, targeting 1.11000 within one to two months. To mitigate the risk of adverse market movements, place a Stop Loss order just above resistance, or around 1.15000.