EURUSD still has some growth potential after correction is over

EURUSD is now consolidating, apparently taking a breather after a two-week recovery from the late June lows. An unclosed daily candlestick—a Doji pattern—highlights traders’ uncertainty near the key resistance level. Meanwhile, technical indicators show that bearish momentum is waning, and a bullish one is forming instead. Nevertheless, the broader downtrend remains intact.

The 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (1.14610 and 1.15420, respectively) continue to decline. The pair is currently trading below these levels, reinforcing a medium-term bearish outlook. However, since early July, prices have approached the EMA20, which is dynamic resistance. Today’s Doji candle has formed right beneath this line—a classic pause before testing the threshold. A successful close above 1.14610 would open the path toward the EMA50 and the psychologically important barrier at 1.15000.

According to the Average True Range, volatility has recently declined, signaling a sharp squeeze following the panic selling in mid-June. Lower ATR readings suggest that the market is stabilizing, setting the stage for a further move. The Chaikin Oscillator confirms an upcoming shift: after reaching an extreme low in June, the indicator reversed and nearly climbed to the zero line. Current figures remain negative but show significant capital inflows during the present rebound. A slight pullback points to a temporary weakening of buying momentum and a pause to build liquidity—yet, we are far from the selling pressure seen earlier.

The fundamental landscape remains mixed. Disappointing US labor market data lowered the chances of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), temporarily putting the dollar under pressure. However, slower eurozone inflation (2.8%) and fresh comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde about the regulator’s more dovish stance aimed at supporting the region’s GDP growth poured cold water on market expectations of a third rate hike, limiting the euro’s upside. New drivers for the pair could emerge midweek, when the FOMC minutes from June are released. The report may shift rate projections.

Consider the following trading strategy:

Buy EURUSD near 1.14100, with Take profit at 1.14990 and Stop loss at 1.13550.

This forecast remains relevant between July 6 and July 13, 2026.