EURUSD stays under pressure as dollar demand rises

EURUSD is stuck in a downward drift, trading near 1.14130 and struggling to shake off the pressure after failing to seal a close above the 1.14500 resistance. What sparked the recent sell-off? A sudden flare-up in Middle East tensions. New restrictions on Iranian crude, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and US retaliation have sent energy prices soaring by almost 6%—a move that typically boosts demand for the dollar as the ultimate safe haven.

This is not the whole story, though. Rising oil costs are a double-edged sword for the single currency. On the one hand, the import‑dependent regional economy is feeling the pinch. On the other, the energy shock is fanning inflation fears while simultaneously stifling industrial activity—a toxic cocktail that only complicates the European Central Bank's (ECB) balancing act. To make matters worse, officials like Fabio Panetta have been quick to highlight the bloc's fragile economic footing, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and GDP worries still firmly in play. The regulator's dovish leanings are sapping expectations of further rate hikes, pulling the rug out from under the euro.

Meanwhile, the dollar is getting a boost from its safe‑haven credentials and a resilient American economy. Yes, the jobs report missed the mark, knocking down the odds of Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening. But the greenback's status as the world's premier hedge against uncertainty remains unquestioned. With the US‑Iran truce looking shaky, any new escalation could easily spark another wave of dollar buying.

Technically, the pair is pinned below a descending trend line that has proven to be a tough ceiling. The Chaikin Oscillator is hovering just beneath zero, revealing that sellers are still running the show. That said, its steady climb from the June lows suggests that the bearish grip might be loosening, at least for now.

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Sell EURUSD from the current level. Place Take Profit at 1.13600. Set Stop Loss at 1.14550.

This forecast is valid from July 8 till July 15, 2026.