Buying EURUSD on low CPI

12 December 2023 95
Buying EURUSD on low CPI

Looking at the EURUSD currency pair from a technical point of view, the level of 1.082 attracts attention. Over the last month since mid-November, the price has bounced off it four times when it tried to break down from above, and once when it tried to break up from below.

Despite different fundamental scenarios in which EURUSD goes up or down, the price needs to test the level on the daily timeframe.

Now let's see what the fundamentals have in store for the market participants.

Past reviews have already assessed the outlook for the U.S. dollar over the next year. According to various median forecasts, the U.S. currency is expected to soften, and the emphasis on this is higher than on the softening of the European currency. Of course, on minute and hourly timeframes, the number of factors that can push EURUSD up or down is hard to compare, there are so many of them. However, moving to the daily timeframe and higher, the picture becomes more "cleared" from the influence of minor factors.

According to the upcoming economic events, the main one is the last Fed meeting of the year, which will start the day after tomorrow. It will be preceded by today's publication of the U.S. consumer price indexes for November.

Core CPI inflation is expected to grow by 0.1% compared to October. If this scenario does not prove to be true and the inflation indices come out lower than forecast, it will give impetus to EURUSD strengthening. And the identified technical target at the level of 1.082 will become quite realistic to achieve in the remaining two trading weeks of this year.

Overall recommendation is to buy EURUSD, provided the U.S. CPI comes out below the forecasted values. If the CPI comes out higher or equal to the forecast, there is no need to enter the deal.


Take profit at the level of 1.082. A stop-loss could be set at the level of 1.07


This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.

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