Buying EURUSD on high eurozone CPI

17 January 2024 84
Buying EURUSD on high eurozone CPI

From the point of view of technical analysis, the EURUSD currency pair has conditions for an upward correction to the broken but not tested level of 1.0910.

At the same time, it is likely that EURUSD will continue its downward movement, which will make a retest of another level at 1.0830, already broken from the bottom up on December 13 last year.

Therefore, two technical scenarios are possible here. In the first case, the price will now go back up to the level of 1.0910 and only then continue to move down to 1.0830. In the second case, the price will complete the retest of 1.0830 and only then will go back to the level of 1.0910.

Which of these scenarios is preferable from the point of view of realization of a trade deal?

Let's turn to the economic calendar. Today, data is expected to be published both for the eurozone and the U.S. In the first case, December CPI will be published, and for the U.S. retail sales data will be released. The European data will be released 3.5 hours earlier than the U.S. data, and there is a reason to believe that it may give impetus to EURUSD movement.

The eurozone CPI (year-on-year value) is expected to rise to 2.9% from the previous 2.4%.

It is likely that this forecast estimate has already been taken into account by the current price. Therefore, the momentum can only cause the actual value to exceed the forecast. This will cause a short-term strengthening of EURUSD, in which the price will probably be able to test its upper target at 1.0910. If the eurozone reporting data is not enough to form an upward momentum, the U.S. retail sales data may come to the rescue. If these estimates are weaker than forecast, it will also push EURUSD upwards.

The final recommendation is to buy EURUSD provided that the eurozone CPI (year-on-year) comes out above 3.0%.

Take profit at the level of 1.0910. A stop-loss could be set at the level of 0.830

This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.

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