Today at 19.00 (GMT+3) and at 19.30 some important economic indicators will be published, which in the short term are likely to determine the trajectory of the EURUSD currency pair.
According to the technical analysis, the EURUSD pair’s price has a local top at 1.1050 below the current market price that hasn’t been retested. It’s likely that this level can become a target if a certain scenario is realized, which will be based on a certain combination of economic data.
First, the CPI of the leading eurozone economy, Germany, should be below expectations. The YoY figure should be below 2.0%.
Second, the core personal consumption expenditures price index in the U.S. for Q2 should be above 3.0%. The US GDP index for Q2 should show that the economy is hot. It also should be above 2.9%.
The Fed has repeatedly indicated in recent weeks that the state of the labor market will play a key role in determining the course of monetary policy. A decline in labor market activity will encourage the regulator to ease monetary restrictions. If the labor market demonstrates a short-term overheated condition, it will limit the Fed's ability to ease rates.
Thus, special attention should be paid to today's initial applications for U.S. unemployment benefits and the number of people receiving these benefits.
If the actual figures of these two indicators come out below the forecasted value, it will also push the EURUSD down.
The final recommendation is EURUSD short-selling, if the German CPI comes out weaker than expected and the U.S. initial and total jobless claims are lower than expected.
The profit could be fixed at 1.1050. The Stop loss can be placed at 1.1200.
The volume of the opened position should be set so that the value of a possible loss, defined with a protective stop order, doesn’t exceed 2% of your deposit.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
