The most important news in the financial markets today is the release of the last in the outgoing year government report on the state of the US labor market. These figures will largely determine the Fed's policy for the first quarter of 2025. The report will give investors and traders a clue as to what steps the Fed may take on its path to monetary easing.
According to the formed graphical patterns on the EURUSD pair chart, the price is targeting the 1.0670 level. The local minimum formed in the first week of November remains at this level.
From a fundamental point of view, the EURUSD's upward movement may be spurred by the weak labor market. Such data will warn the Fed of the need to avoid pauses in its successive rate cuts.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1% previously, while average hourly earnings are expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%. These expectations are in line with the underlying logic of conditions favoring further monetary easing.
The contradiction lies in the projected value of the change in nonfarm payrolls. It is expected to rise from 12,000 to 202,000, an increase of more than 16 times. The EURUSD's upward movement will be even more dramatic if these expectations are not met and the value of nonfarm payrolls is below last month's level. It should be noted that this scenario is unlikely, but if it does happen, it will give traders the opportunity to make profits close to 1000 pips.
The overall recommendation is to buy EURUSD if the value of the change in nonfarm payrolls is less than 12 thousand people.
Profit could be taken at 1.0670. A stop loss could be set at 1.0450.
The volume of the opened position should be set so that the value of a possible loss, defined with a protective stop order, does not exceed 1% of your deposit.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.