GBPUSD takes breather amid weaker pound and stronger dollar

The GBPUSD currency pair is now showing signs of slowing bearish momentum after a sharp drop from a local high of 1.37253 set on September 17. The price is currently consolidating near 1.33620, signaling a pause in the downtrend. Oscillators and the pair’s rise during early trading confirm this dynamic. A short-term rebound or sideways movement is probable.

The Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) shows weak bullish momentum on the daily timeframe. The %K line crossed above the %D one on September 24, exiting oversold territory. Although both lines are still in the lower range, the very fact of breaking out of this zone and the first signs of growth indicate a slowdown in bearish activity and the potential for an upward correction.

The Chaikin Oscillator partially supports this signal. Despite staying in negative territory, the indicator has stopped setting new lows and consolidated near current levels, suggesting that sales volumes are depleting and buyers are beginning to show some interest.

Fundamental factors serve as catalysts for the GBPUSD technical picture. The pound’s weakness is driven by investor concerns over the UK budget plan release scheduled for November 26. Higher taxes amid sluggish economic growth are expected. Scattered comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials add to the broader uncertainty. Meanwhile, the dollar is strengthening after upward revisions to US Q2 GDP data and lower jobless claims, prompting markets to reconsider their expectations of further policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Given the current technical setup and fundamental factors, a resumption of the downtrend after a short-lived consolidation seems to be the most probable scenario until October 3. Breaking through the 1.3300 level would pave the way to the next target around 1.3200.

Pay attention to the following trading strategy:

Sell GBPUSD during the correction. Take profit: 1.3200. Stop loss: 1.35220.

This forecast is valid from September 26 to October 3, 2025.