The Bank of England (BoE) is currently keeping interest rates at 4%. Since its last decision on November 6, 2025, the regulator has adhered to a wait-and-see approach, remaining ready to reduce borrowing costs if there is enough evidence of a steady decline in inflation. However, BoE officials do not share a unanimous opinion on the matter. At the beginning of the month, the central bank maintained the rate unchanged, but only by a small majority.
Key details from the previous BoE meeting are outlined below:
Most members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the rate at 4% to ensure the sustainability of the disinflation process.
However, four MPC officials supported a 0.25% reduction, indicating a split within policymakers and raising the possibility of near-term monetary easing.
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 3.8% in September, well above the BoE’s target. However, inflation could have reached its peak and is now expected to slow. The long-awaited 2% level could be hit as early as 2027. The risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand has become more apparent than the risk of persistently high figures. If progress in lowering CPI continues, the BoE is likely to gradually cut rates. The next decision is due on December 18, 2025.
The UK labor market, which remains relatively stable but still causes some concerns among traders, is another factor that the regulator will take into account at its next meeting.
Considering all the facts, the UK central bank is moderately dovish but cautious. It is willing to cut rates, though does not see reasons to hurry the decision until it is certain that inflation is heading steadily toward the target.
Probably, the market has already factored monetary easing into the GBPUSD outlook. Thus, a strong CPI report would be a major shock. The BoE’s dovish stance could shift to a more hawkish tone, and the currency pair would likely advance. Tomorrow, the UK CPI for October is expected to be released. If the actual figures are higher than forecast, this will push GBPUSD upward in the short run. The buy signal will be reinforced if the 1.3185 level is broken.
The overall recommendation is to buy GBPUSD from the 1.3185 level if UK inflation comes in higher than expected. Profits should be taken at 1.3250. Stop Loss could be set at 1.3140.
The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
