GBPUSD might keep falling towards lower boundary of descending triangle

GBPUSD is treading water within a narrow intraday range, showing faint signs of stabilization after a series of losing sessions. However, the pair continues to trade below a key moving average cluster—the EMA20, the EMA50, the EMA100, and the EMA200—all squeezed between 1.33702 and 1.33952. Make no mistake: this is a formidable resistance zone that bulls can't seem to crack.

Turning to momentum, it has clearly faded. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has nosedived from an overbought 82 in mid-July to a neutral 47, signaling that the previous rally is a distant memory. To put it bluntly, the buying pressure that once propelled GBPUSD higher has completely evaporated. 

And the story doesn't end there. The bearish case gets even stronger when we look at the broader picture. Since late January, a descending triangle has been unfolding, with the lower boundary near 1.31400 tested in April and June, and the falling resistance line probed in January, May, and July. What does this mean? The pattern remains incomplete, with no breakout in sight—and it is not set to resolve until November. This is a long runway for bears to maintain control. 

The Chaikin Oscillator, meanwhile, is languishing in negative territory, though it bounced back this morning from levels that had previously sparked technical rebounds. But any recovery attempt is likely to hit a wall, capped by the triangle's overhead pressure. In other words, the path of least resistance still points lower. 

Fundamentals are no friend to the pound. Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are boosting dollar demand, while climbing oil prices keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks on high alert ahead of the July 29 meeting. On the UK front, weak services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) and deteriorating industrial orders have raised expectations of dovishness from the Bank of England (BoE). Concurrently, the new government's fiscal credibility is under scrutiny. All of this leaves sterling particularly vulnerable.

For those ready to make a move, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Sell GBPUSD on a rebound to the EMA cluster resistance zone between 1.33700 and 1.33900. Lock in profits at 1.32000. Place Stop loss at 1.35000.

This forecast is valid from July 24 till July 31, 2026.