Buying GBPUSD up to 1.3600

Yesterday, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, with six votes in favor of this pause and three against it. The July meeting revealed a brewing internal split among officials, as most analysts had forecast a seven‑to‑two outcome.

Here’s how the votes broke down:

In favor of holding borrowing costs at 3.75%: six committee members, including BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. Policymakers preferred to take a wait-and-see approach, pointing out that UK inflation had dropped to 2.6% in June and domestic economic conditions remained relatively stable.

In favor of raising borrowing costs to 4.00%: three committee members—Chief Economist Huw Pill, Megan Greene, and Catherine Mann.

What drove the disagreement:

The main trigger for the BoE hawks was escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of another surge in oil prices, which had previously reached $100 per barrel.

Those pushing for a hike are particularly worried that inflation—having stayed above the 2% target for nearly five years—could inflict serious long‑term damage on the economy.

Such a split sends a clear signal that the UK regulator may be more prepared for monetary tightening than the market had previously anticipated. This keeps underpinning the pound.

What to expect in the second half of 2026:

The outlook for GBPUSD though year-end points to a moderate rise toward the 1.35–1.37 range. Long-term trends in the currency market are now set by monetary policy decisions of major central banks. The current rate gap between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the BoE provides solid support for the pound.

The overall recommendation is to buy GBPUSD. Profits should be taken at 1.3600. Stop Loss could be set at 1.3370.

Always size the position so that your potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss) is no more than 1% of your account balance. If you can’t open a position that meets such a risk criterion, it’s safer to skip this trade and wait for a better, lower-risk opportunity.