High UK employment and low inflation in US will give upward momentum to GBPUSD

12 February 2024 111
High UK employment and low inflation in US will give upward momentum to GBPUSD

The beginning of the week is full of publications of economic statistics.


On Tuesday, February 13, December UK employment data will be released, and January US consumer price indexes will be released in the evening.


If one looks at the GBPUSD currency pair from the point of view of technical analysis, the level of 1.2740 is of interest. The price zone around this level started to form at the end of November last year, and since then it has repeatedly acted both as short-term support on small timeframes and as resistance on higher timeframes.


The last time this level was broken by a long downward candle on February 2, after that the price did not test it again. So, from a technical point of view, there are prerequisites for the GBPUSD price to return to this level.


What combination of economic data can help implement this scenario?


Strong UK labor market data combined with low inflation in the US could give GBPUSD upward momentum. That is, in the first case, the UK unemployment rate should be lower than the forecasted 4.0%, while the US consumer price index (CPI) (year-on-year) should be lower than the forecasted estimate of 2.9%. This combination of economic data is likely to give the Bank of England an incentive to keep monetary conditions tight for some time, while the Fed will have additional prerequisites for a more confident mood on policy easing.


The final recommendation is to buy GBPUSD provided the UK unemployment rate is less than 4.0% and the US CPI (tracked change: year-on-year) is less than 2.9%.

Profit should be taken at the level of 1.2740. A stop-loss should be set at the level of 1.2530.

This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.

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