Selling GBPUSD if more than two out of nine Bank of England officials support a rate cut

Today at 18.00 (GMT+3) the Bank of England will hold a meeting to decide on the key interest rate. A certain nervousness and the resulting volatility in currency markets is created by yesterday's decision of the Fed to ease policy by 0.5% at once instead of a quarter-of-a-percentage-point option.  

The Bank of England is expected to keep the rate at the current level of 5.0%. It is projected that seven out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be in favor of retaining the existing rate and only two will support further reduction. At the previous BoE meeting in August, the rate was cut by a quarter of a percent from 5.25%. That time there was a tight 5-4 vote to lower rates.

If there are more than two people who vote for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting, it will cause a sharp short-term decline in GBPUSD.

Yesterday, the UK Consumer Price Index and Producer Purchase Price Index were released. CPI for August (YoY) remained unchanged at 2.2%, while the second figure showed a significant decline, which generally indicates a slowdown in inflationary pressures and a possible increase in sentiment among Bank of England officials in favor of more active policy easing.

From the technical point of view, the support level of 1.3150 was formed on the hourly timeframe of the GBPUSD pair, which the price tried to overcome the day before yesterday and yesterday. It’s likely that there will be a third attempt to break it, the market is waiting for the reason for such a downward impulse.

The final recommendation is to sell GBPUSD if at today's meeting of the Bank of England more than two members of the committee will vote for the rate cut.

The profit could be fixed at 1.3150. The Stop loss could be placed at the level of 1.3250.

The volume of the opened position should be set so that the value of a possible loss, defined with a protective stop order, doesn’t exceed 2% of your deposit.