Bearish White Swan pattern points to GBPUSD selling to 1.2150 level

The GBPUSD currency pair quotes are declining after three days of growth amid the strengthening of the US dollar. Weakened economic indicators in the UK, including a slowdown in inflation, poor retail sales and low GDP growth, increase the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in February.

Meanwhile, the US dollar gained support due to President Donald Trump's decision to impose duties on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum and copper in order to stimulate domestic production. In addition, uncertainty over economic implications of Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies is forcing the Federal Reserve System to take a cautious stance ahead of Wednesday's meeting. This provides additional support for the US currency.

From a technical point of view, GBPUSD is showing downward dynamics on the H6 timeframe, despite breaking the downtrend lines on the daily chart. This creates uncertainty in the medium term.

The rare Bearish White Swan harmonic pattern on H6 serves as an important signal, indicating a possible downward reversal of the price after the upward movement that began on January 13, 2025. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) exited the overbought zone, confirming the decrease in buying pressure. The 200-Day Moving Average remains above the current price, supporting the bearish scenario. Altogether, these factors suggest a probable downward movement of quotes.

The pair may not immediately find its sellers and may rise again to the key resistance of 1.2500. From this level, sales may resume.

Short-term prospects for the GBPUSD currency pair suggest selling with the target of 1.2150. Part of the profit should be taken near the level of 1.2300. A Stop loss could be set at 1.2650.

Since the bearish trend is short-term, the trading volume should not exceed 2% of your total balance to reduce risks.