GBPUSD may rise to 1.27000 due to favorable UK statistics

On Thursday, February 13, the GBPUSD rate rose significantly from 1.24306 to 1.25650. At the beginning of Friday's trading session, the rate stood at 1.25512. The increase was due to positive macroeconomic statistics from the UK.

The country's trade deficit was better than expected, totaling -17.45 billion pounds against the expected -18.6 billion pounds. In addition, the GDP data also exceeded expectations: the economy grew by 0.1% instead of the forecasted decline of 0.1%. This improvement was the result of higher government spending at the end of 2024, which temporarily helped the Labor government after a period of weak economic performance.

Despite the positive dynamics of total GDP, things look less optimistic once demographic factors are taken into account. GDP per capita declined by 0.1% for the second consecutive quarter and dropped by 1.1% over the last two years. By the end of 2024, the economy grew by only 0.9%. The Bank of England maintains a cautious outlook, lowering its GDP growth expectations for this year to 0.7% from the initial 1.4%.

The pound continued to strengthen on the back of these data, reaching 1.25670, the highest level in a month. Weekly growth amounted to 1.5%, which is largely due to both internal factors and weaker US dollar.

On the other hand, economic conditions in the US remain ambiguous. Although the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, inflationary pressure increased in January. This has planted doubts about the Fed's future policy. Market participants revised their expectations: they now see only one rate cut of 25 basis points later this year instead of the previously projected 36 basis points. ClearBridge analysts warn that if the rising inflation trend is confirmed by more data, the Fed may be forced to tighten monetary policy in the second half of 2025.

The next important event will be the publication of US retail sales data. A 0.2% drop is expected, compared to a 0.4% increase last month. If these forecasts are confirmed, the dollar is likely to get under pressure.

The technical picture shows that GBPUSD has the potential for further growth. The RSI indicator is at the neutral level of 46, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions. MACD is forming a bullish signal: its main line broke through the signal line upwards, and the divergence between them continues to grow. These factors support the idea of GBPUSD continued uptrend in the short term.

Current recommendation:

Buy at the current price. Take profit – 1.2700. Stop loss – 1.24443.