The GBPUSD currency pair is moving further within a medium-term uptrend. Yesterday, the pair rose above 1.36 for the first time since February 2022, but lost most of the gains by the close of trading. Today’s events could push prices slightly down, which will surely be taken advantage of by those buying the pound against the dollar. Long positions should be opened near the level of 1.345.
Friday's key event will be the release of the US labor market report for May. Bloomberg analysts expect American companies to slow hiring and add no more than 130,000 jobs. Unemployment remains stable, but Joseph Brusuelas of RSM US projects its rate to worsen as the federal government streamlines its workforce. Additionally, the trade sector’s roaring demand for labor, which supported the job market in early 2025, is on the decline.
Bank of America sees a local rebound in the dollar following today’s release of economic statistics. However, they highlight that the move is short-term and advise traders not to bet on a significant strengthening of the greenback. Until the US sees any noticeable changes in the political and economic situation, the dollar will continue spiraling down against other major currencies, led by the pound among others.
The UK business activity indices rose decently, and the Bank of England report showed decreasing concerns about US tariffs this week. According to the report, only 12% of British companies were strongly worried about US import duties in May, with April’s figure almost twice as high. A trade deal between the two countries has significantly lowered uncertainty, with 70% of firms expecting no negative impact of tariffs on their business at all.
The local correction of GBPUSD to 1.345 will help the RSI to reduce overbought before a new wave of growth. Its nearest target could be 1.36.
Consider the following trading strategy:
Buy GBPUSD near 1.345. Take profit – 1.36. Stop loss – 1.335.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
