GBPUSD rises amid improved UK economic conditions

Today, August 15, the GBPUSD rate opened at 1.35285. Yesterday’s statistics from the United States and United Kingdom reduced the pair’s volatility during early hours of trading. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) grew by 0.3%, exceeding the 0.1% consensus forecast. This supported the British pound. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened due to the Producer Price Index (PPI), which accelerated up to 0.9% instead of the projected 0.2%.

The pair is also influenced by diverging central bank expectations. Elevated UK inflation will likely prevent the Bank of England (BoE) from cutting interest rates before November. Conversely, markets still expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower borrowing costs in September. This policy divergence continues weighing on the dollar while supporting GBPUSD.

Prices have the potential to grow further if persistent inflation in the UK finds confirmation. The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July is scheduled for August 20. Depending on the results, the BoE could postpone rate cuts till the end of the year, thereby strengthening the British pound, or could trigger a correction toward the June support level at 1.34280.

From a technical perspective, GBPUSD has been trading upward since late July. The RSI (14) is now in the neutral zone between 20 and 80, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the oscillator’s gradual rise signals increasing buying pressure. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator also confirms an uptrend. It has been rising since July 31 in tandem with GBP appreciation. The combination of fundamental drivers and technical confirmation suggests the uptrend has room to extend.

Consider the following trading plan:

Buy GBPUSD at the current price near 1.35285. Take Profit should be placed at 1.37370. Stop Loss should be set at 1.34280 to avoid a sudden reversal in case of worsening economic statistics.

The forecast remains valid from August 15 to August 22, 2025.