In early Monday trading, gold is advancing, nearing $3,800 per ounce. This upward movement is linked to the US dollar losing strength and investors thinking that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates soon. Recent inflation data that met forecasts has reinforced this sentiment. Traders are now closely monitoring any signs of a softening labor market, which could prompt the regulator to begin monetary easing.
The broader macroeconomic environment also supports bullion prices. Lower interest rates make alternative assets less appealing and put more pressure on the dollar. More backing for safe havens stems from the possibility of a US government shutdown. If a funding agreement is not reached by September 30, the publication of key economic data, such as the employment report, could be suspended. This would eliminate important market guidance and likely amplify demand for gold.
New protectionist initiatives from the US are contributing to economic uncertainty. These measures could ultimately prompt the Fed to exercise greater caution over reducing interest rates due to inflation risks. Nevertheless, the market outlook remains optimistic.
A record capital inflow into the largest exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, practically confirms this sentiment, highlighting growing institutional confidence in gold as a hedge. Such substantial purchases more than compensate for the decline in retail demand.
From a technical standpoint, the start of the week continued the established uptrend. The Chaikin Oscillator on the daily chart is rising, signaling that buyers are in control. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator keeps showing a positive trend. Slower growth of the latter is the only cause for concern, as it may point to an upcoming correction or consolidation period, despite the fact that the broader upward momentum remains firmly in place.
Consider the following trading strategy:
Buy gold in the $3,800–$3,740 range. Take profit: $3,850. Stop loss: $3,690.
This forecast is valid from September 29 to October 6, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
