Gold prices spent last week digging in their heels above the $4,200 level, successfully consolidating to keep the upward momentum alive. Buyers now have their sights set on the all-time highs reached in October, and surpassing that barrier would open the floodgates toward the psychologically significant $4,400 threshold. The metal is poised to end 2025 with gains exceeding 60%—a performance that would stand head and shoulders above any annual return since 1979. A new peak by late December would add a poetic finish to the year.
The technical picture on the daily chart, however, is a mixed bag. The RSI has ventured into overbought territory for the first time in two months, raising a yellow flag for a potential correction. A similar overbought condition held sway throughout the first half of autumn, a period that nonetheless saw gold climb from $3,500 to $4,380 per ounce. Right now, neither the Stochastic lines nor the widening Bollinger Bands are sounding the alarm for a downturn. Fundamentally, bears have little reason to be optimistic either.
The shift to thinner holiday trading will be preceded by two key US data releases for November: tomorrow's jobs report, followed by inflation figures on Thursday. If these prints disappoint, traders may double down on their long gold positions. The bullion's allure is further fueled by unabashedly bullish forecasts from Wall Street's leading institutions.
Over the past week, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley analysts have reaffirmed their conviction, reiterating a $4,900 target for gold. Both banks note that retail investors allocate very little to the metal in their portfolios. Morgan Stanley estimates the average share is only 0.17–0.22%, contemplating that every 0.01% increase translates to a price rise of over 1%.
The following trading plan may come into play:
Buy gold in the $4,250–$4,350 range. Take profit: $4,400. Stop loss: $4,200.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
