After the powerful run that picked up steam following the October correction, gold is catching its breath in a consolidation phase. The price seems to be a little winded, trapped in a narrow range, and lacking the energy to decisively break above $4,217. This loss of momentum and indecision is written all over the technical indicators.
The RSI (79) flashes a warning, saying a pullback is needed to let off some steam, even though it's not officially in overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Oscillator paints a bearish picture with a classic divergence—it has been on a steady decline since late November while the price has held its ground. This shows that capital inflows are drying up, and selling pressure is starting to creep in. The final piece of the puzzle is the Bollinger Bands squeezing together, confirming that volatility has fallen off a cliff in this quiet period before a new one comes into play.
On the fundamental front, gold's near-term fate is in the hands of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is about to make its monetary decision on December 10–11. The market has baked in a 25-basis-point rate cut—a move that has given bullion a lift via a weaker greenback. Nevertheless, the risk of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reaction is alive and well, especially if the Fed's commentary or dot plot is less dovish than the market was hoping for.
Putting it all together, the most likely scenario for the metal is a technical pullback to shake out the recent over-optimism. This could cause the price to take a step back to test the $4,140–$4,170 support zone, where the middle Bollinger Band makes its debut. However, with the strong fundamentals and expectations for more central bank easing in 2026, this move would likely be just a healthy correction—and could open the door for attractive deal entries to ride the next leg of the broader uptrend.
Keep up with the trading plan down below:
Buy gold when the price is going down to support at $4,170. Take profit 1: $4,267. Take profit 2: $4,330. Stop loss: $4,080.
The forecast holds true between December 8 and December 15, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
