Buying gold on dips with $4,500 target

After a roller-coaster December, the gold market has settled into a holding pattern, consolidating just below all-time peaks as it prepares for 2026. 

The precious metal is currently boxed in by key options levels. A significant call wall (resistance) at $4,500–$4,600 and a robust put support floor at $4,200–$4,300 are acting as magnets. Market makers are keeping the price corralled here to minimize year-end expiry payouts. Persistently high open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and a moderate contango (futures premium) point to steady, long-term confidence, free of the excesses of a speculative frenzy.

Investors are building buffers for the year ahead, balancing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cuts with geopolitical risks. The Gold Volatility Index (GCVL) holding in the 24–31 zone implies a watchful, though not fearful, market at these elevated levels.

Central banks—with China and India leading the way—have kept their buying engines running through the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025. This relentless institutional demand has created a "concrete floor" under prices above $4,000.

In fact, gold is closing out 2025 as a standout defensive performer. While holiday-thinned trading may trigger sharp price spikes (liquidity manipulation) this week, the fundamental outlook suggests new record highs for bullion in early January 2026.

According to LBMA surveys, the market sees a credible path to $5,000 provided that the metal can secure a monthly close above the $4,400 breakout zone. 

As of December 30, 2025, gold remains firmly in "buyers' hands." The options structure reveals that major players aren't bracing for a collapse. Instead, they are using any dip toward the $4,200–$4,300 range as an opportunity to accumulate long positions before the 2026 kickoff.

The ultimate recommendation is to buy gold. Lock in profits at $4,500. Place Stop Loss at $4,250.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.