Gold went lower on Monday, February 16, stepping back from Friday's post-inflation rally. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in softer than anticipated, reinforcing bets on two Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts before year-end. This briefly lit a fire under bullion, yet the upside momentum proved to be short-lived as traders moved swiftly to lock in profits.
The pullback is now playing out against a backdrop of thinning liquidity. US markets are dark for Presidents' Day, while Chinese exchanges remain shuttered for the Lunar New Year—a potent cocktail for heightened volatility in the near term. With trading volumes running on fumes, even modest sell orders can nudge prices, and that's exactly what's unfolding. The absence of Chinese buyers is especially conspicuous, given the region's role as a key pillar of demand. Still, these shallow fluctuations may offer a window for position-builders eyeing the next leg higher.
In the meantime, geopolitical tensions continue to smolder beneath the surface. While US-Iran talks and dialogues around Eastern Europe dominate headlines, few expect swift resolutions. Any diplomatic missteps could quickly reignite safe-haven flows. Concurrently, uncertainty swirling around Trump-era fiscal policy and the persistent American budget deficit are subtly encouraging central banks and institutional investors to view gold as a hedge and competitor to conventional debt instruments.
On the technical front, the precious metal has settled into a consolidation phase, with the uptrend showing signs of fatigue. The Stochastic Indicator has delivered a bearish crossover, and its downward tilt signals waning upside momentum. Conversely, the Chaikin Oscillator, though still in positive territory, has flattened considerably, suggesting that buying interest stays on yet lacks conviction. This sideways drift points to a market catching its breath, not reversing course.
Pay attention to the trading plan outlined below:
Buy gold at the current price. Place Take profit 1 at $5,120 and Take profit 2 at $5,250. Set Stop loss at $4,780.
This forecast holds true from February 16 till February 24, 2026.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
