Gold selloff targets $4,700 amid stronger dollar and fewer rate cuts

Gold has clearly seen better days. Following six consecutive sessions of decline—the longest losing streak since late 2024—the precious metal is now trading near $4,848, making another attempt to recover. The once-bright outlook for bullion has recently been clouded by the current uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary path, thrown off course by the Middle East crisis and surging crude prices.

On Wednesday, March 18, the US central bank left interest rates unchanged and signaled only one potential cut this year. Chair Jerome Powell stated that policy easing could be considered once stubborn inflation loosens its grip. For now, however, clear and steady improvements appear nowhere in sight. The Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped to a seven-month high in February. What’s more troubling, these figures did not reflect the latest turmoil in the Middle East. This is bad news for non-yielding gold.

Typically, geopolitical tensions create a favorable environment for precious metals. So, in theory, demand for these safe-haven assets should be running high, but the greenback is stealing the show, emerging as a more attractive option for traders. The Dollar Index has risen by over 2% since the conflict escalated, reducing gold’s appeal for holders of other currencies. In addition, heightened volatility in commodities and stocks forces investors to take profits on bullion in order to cover margin calls elsewhere.

Although signs of the ongoing downtrend that originated in early March stay firmly intact, the asset appeared to recover locally during today’s early trading, offsetting some losses after its recent sharp drop. The technical setup tells a similar story. The Chaikin Oscillator, despite being in the negative zone, has just slowed its decline and flattened out, signaling weakening bearish pressure. Stochastic lines have crossed near oversold territory at 23–24, echoing the same dynamic. Still, this seems to be a correction within the larger downtrend, offering a favorable entry point to go short.

Keep in mind the following trading plan:

Sell gold if prices climb toward the $4,880–$4,900 range during the current rebound. Place Take profit at $4,700. Set Stop loss at $4,970.

This forecast remains relevant between March 19 and March 26, 2026.