Gold declines amid persistent bearish pressure and alarming inflation risks

The gold market (XAUUSD) is now experiencing a local decline, with prices hovering around $4,590 per ounce. As we can see, bearish momentum remains intact following a short-lived rebound in late April. Buyers failed to seize the initiative, leaving quotes under sustained selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands confirm this downbeat sentiment. Prices have consolidated within the lower part of the channel, between the 20-day simple moving average (SMA 20) at $4,714.81 and the bottom line at $4,560.34—a clear sign that bulls are weak. At the same time, the bands are moderately widening, signaling rising volatility and a decisive move rather than mere consolidation.

The Chaikin Oscillator is swimming deeply in negative territory, with volumes of sales outweighing those of purchases. Despite a brief rebound attempt from the April 29 minimum, today’s renewed downward trend points to a lack of sustained buying interest.

Volume analysis shows relatively low trading activity during the previous session due to the holiday weekend. To confirm a further downside, the indicator should increase as prices fall. Otherwise, the current trend may simply be a corrective lull before the storm, with no clear direction.

On the fundamental front, bullion is now exploring the bottom due to heightened inflation risks and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish rhetoric. That said, gold still has some tailwinds: geopolitical jitters surrounding Iran and elevated oil prices are both boosting demand for safe havens. The metal’s rally, however, remains capped by the strong dollar and anticipations of higher interest rates. For now, investors appear frozen in wait‑and‑see mode.

This week will bring news about the US labor market, Fed monetary commentary, and the Ministry of Finance’s quarterly borrowing plan—any of which could affect rate expectations.

Pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Sell gold from current levels, with Take profit at $4,500 and Stop loss at $4,670.

This forecast remains relevant between May 4 and May 11, 2026.