Gold (XAUUSD) is starting the day on the back foot, slipping toward $4160.00 and giving back some of the ground it gained in last week's sharp rally. The main driver behind the recent dynamics is the dismal US jobs report for June, which landed with a thud. Just 57,000 new positions were created, far below the anticipated 110,000, forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to swiftly rethink its interest rate expectations.
Typically, a weaker dollar gives gold a good tailwind, lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-income-producing metal. However, the 10-year Treasury yield is stubbornly stuck near 4.5%, throwing a roadblock in the way of a clean break above $4,200. And the greenback isn't exactly crumbling—it is holding firm enough to keep a lid on any bullion's upside.
Underpinning the market is a steady stream of central bank buying. The World Gold Council (WGC) reports that global reserves grew by 41 tons in May, with Poland and China leading the pack—both have been quietly stockpiling for months. This institutional demand is providing a sturdy safety net, even as speculative interest begins to fade.
The next big test will likely come midweek, when the Fed minutes from the June meeting hit the tape. After that, all eyes will pivot to the July 14 inflation data, which could reshuffle investor expectations on the rate front.
Looking at the charts, gold is hovering near $4,160 and printing a bearish candle on the daily timeframe. Warning lights are flashing on the indicators: the Stochastic Oscillator has nudged into overbought territory, while the Chaikin one is rolling over—both of which suggest that a technical pullback may be in the cards.
For those ready to make a move, here is the trading plan:
Buy gold when it goes down to $4,135.00. Place Take profit at $4,290.00. Set Stop loss at $4,020.00.
This forecast holds true from July 6 till July 13, 2026.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
