Gold is trying to get back on its feet before Fed meeting

Gold prices appear to be squeezed and directionless. Today’s opening with an upward gap was followed by a shooting-star-like candlestick. What does this mean? The pattern shows bullion’s attempt to continue its rally and growing investors’ uncertainty ahead of this week’s key events.

The current price ($4,102) is desperately trying to settle firmly above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA20) at $4,085.65. This line has just stopped its decline and turned nearly horizontal—a possible sign that the previous downward momentum is fading, though it says nothing about a trend reversal. At the same time, the EMA50 ($4,216.56) remains far above and keeps sliding, pointing to sellers’ dominance. A sustained turnaround would require the price to rise significantly and break through the downward slope of the long-term moving average.

Other indicators tell a similar story: there is no solid growth momentum. The Chaikin Oscillator remains in negative territory and continues to decline, forming a bearish divergence. While the price keeps hovering near local peaks, capital flows are getting thinner, suggesting that the gold’s recent rally was not backed by genuine demand. Volatility, as measured by the Average True Range (ATR), has also dropped—a typical market response ahead of a sharp move in either direction.

The fundamental landscape remains mixed. A temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran pushed crude costs and inflation concerns lower, giving gold a helping hand at the start of the week. However, the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and high expectations of a rate hike (around 80%)—already priced in by the market—are working against further upside. Bullion has strong support at $4,000, underpinned by relentless physical demand in China. Asian bulls appear significantly interested in buying dips. This keeps the precious metal afloat, preventing it from a deeper correction ahead of global central bank monetary decisions.

Take into account the trading plan presented below:

Sell gold at the current price of $4,102. Place Take profit at $3,980. Set Stop loss at $4,190.

The forecast is valid from July 27 till August 3, 2026.