Gold quotes continue to decline. Yesterday, the price didn't quite reach 1830, which was marked in the previous forecast as the target of the current correction. However, today's upward pullback looks rather sluggish, and the bears may continue to drop gold prices even lower, in the range of 1790-1800. This scenario of a new decline in the current news background is highly likely.
Before the participants of the gold market had time to win back the already not very positive statistics on inflation, which was released on Tuesday, yesterday, a replenishment was made in the list of factors for reducing the quotes of the main precious metal. Too good statistics on the US economy make gold less and less attractive asset in the eyes of investors.
Yesterday's data on US retail sales for January reinforced the negative trend in gold. Sales growth in January was 3% (the highest growth rate since January 2022) compared to December. This level of household spending is an important pro-inflationary factor, which means that the Fed has another reason to continue its cycle of tightening monetary policy and increasing rates.
A sharp rise in the PMI index in New York state is also not good for gold. The indicator increased immediately by 27 points, from -32.9 to -5.8. Despite the remaining negative value of the index, such a rapid improvement in business sentiment reduces the likelihood of a recession, and the need for gold as a defensive asset also falls.
Now, the main task is to hold the support of 1830 for the bulls in the gold market. From the point of view of technical analysis, no reversal signals have been formed yet, and it means a high probability that the current movement will continue. If the level of 1830 still goes down, then you should focus on the range of 1790-1800 as the next target of the bears.
We may offer you the following option of trading strategy:
Sell gold when the support is broken down at 1830. Take profit 1 — 1800. Take profit 2 — 1790. Stop-loss — 1855.
Also, traders can use Trailing stop instead of fixed Stop-loss at their disposal.