The complex macroeconomic and geopolitical situation is contributing to the gold market growth. In recent days, gold prices have risen, reaching nearly a four-week high, driven by the growing demand for safe-haven assets.
Among the key factors supporting the increase in quotations are uncertainty around the economic and trade policy of US President-elect Donald Trump, as well as slowing pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve System (Fed). The market’s estimations of the US economic growth and inflation rate are cautious due to the statements regarding universal trade tariffs and economic emergency. The protectionist policy suggested by Trump could increase inflationary pressure, which traditionally favors gold as an asset for hedging inflation risks.
However, rising Treasury bond yields and a stronger dollar are limiting the short-term growth potential of gold. According to the latest Fed meeting minutes, the regulator is planning to approach rate cuts more cautiously in 2025. Nevertheless, persisting uncertainty about the Fed’s future monetary policy is encouraging the interest in precious metals.
Now the market is awaiting the release of key economic data, including the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate. The number of job gains is forecast to decrease to 154,000 in December after rising by 227,000 in November. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to grow to 4.3% from 4.2%. If the forecasts are correct, gold will gain additional support as a safe-haven asset.
The MACD analysis signals weakening bearish sentiment with a possible trend reversal, while the Chaikin Oscillator shows strengthening of the bullish momentum since the beginning of the year. The RSI being around 60-70 indicates that the asset is not overbought and has moderate upward dynamics.
Suggested options for trading:
Buy gold at the current price. Take profit – 2716.88. Stop loss – 2602.51.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
