Gold trades in narrow range ahead of Fed interest rate decision

Gold has been on an uptrend over the past ten days, rising from $2,583.32 to $2,786.06 per ounce. On Wednesday, trading opened at $2763.12, indicating some stability after prices had fallen 1% on Monday. The decline was driven by investor concerns over the overvaluation of shares in AI companies, which was compounded by the launch of Chinese language model DeepSeek, which proved cheaper than its US counterparts.

Nevertheless, strong gold purchases by central banks are supporting its price. In 2024, gold appreciated by 27%, resulting in its fifth consecutive year of growth. The main reason for this increase is asset diversification amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, as well as concerns about rising US government debt. Last year, demand from central banks totaled around 1,000 tons, providing significant support for long gold positions. LBMA analysts forecast that gold price could reach a high of $3,290 per ounce in 2025.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold an interest rate meeting today. According to analysts' forecasts, the rate will remain steady, which will maintain gold's appeal as an asset, but may slow down its further price growth. In addition, the US GDP data is to be released. If the actual data is lower than projected, it may increase the appeal of gold and lead to the price growth. Inflationary concerns are also contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven.

In terms of technical analysis, last Friday, prices approached the October 2024 high at $2,790.07. However, traders were unable to break it, which led to a rebound and price decline on Monday. The RSI indicator points to prices reaching the overbought zone on January 24, which triggered a price correction. Nevertheless, the MACD indicator suggests an ongoing bullish trend in the market, and the news background supports a recommendation to buy gold.

Now the probable scenario is the price movement in a narrow range before the release of data on interest rate and GDP in the USA. If analysts' forecasts are confirmed, gold will be able to continue its growth, albeit more slowly. If the GDP data shows a solid economic growth in the US, this could have a negative impact on prices. The outcome will be similar if the Fed raises the rate while fighting inflation in the country. 

Current recommendation:

Buy in the range of 2708.01-2752.31. Take profit – 2786.06. Stop loss – 2708.00.