NVIDIA shares rally on Fed rate cut hopes

NVIDIA stocks are clawing back ground today, getting a lift from growing bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in December. A batch of soft September data—weak retail sales and shaky consumer confidence—along with some dovish comments from officials, hiked the odds for monetary easing to 85%, as noted by the CME FedWatch tool. This gives the broader tech sector much-needed support, even though industry headwinds are still blowing.

However, the rally hit a snag when news broke that a key client may switch to Google's TPU processors by 2027. The mere threat of losing this chip purchasing business sparked a 4% pre-market sell-off, with quotes possibly falling in the short run. 

Looking beyond the immediate noise, the long-term story for NVIDIA is still compelling. The company remains a king in high-performance computing, and the generative artificial intelligence (AI) boom continues to drive data center revenue. A major game-changer could be the potential for the Trump administration to give the nod to advanced chip exports to China, despite previous restrictions. Unlocking the Asian market would be a huge win for the American corporation and its stockholders.

Technically, NVIDIA is attempting to stage a minor comeback within a larger downtrend. The Chaikin Oscillator has turned positive, which is a good sign as funds are starting to flow back in, with buyers stepping up around the $169–$170 zone. In contrast, the RSI, sitting at 34, is stuck in neutral. It's not showing any real upward momentum, nor is it indicating that the stock is oversold. This suggests there isn't enough energy for a significant rally or true trend reversal.

The following strategy may come into play for your trading:

Buy NVIDIA shares at the current price or when they approach $170. Take Profit 1: $190.5. Take Profit 2: $200. Stop Loss: $160.

The forecast is valid from November 26 till December 3, 2025.

A trend reversal will be confirmed when the first Take Profit is successfully broken.