NVIDIA gains as China H200 chip shipment hopes build

NVIDIA shares have kept climbing the ladder in recent sessions, pushing into uncharted territory and hitting a new all-time high of $188.95. A major tailwind came from the Trump administration's move to permit shipments of advanced H200 chips to China—albeit with a 25% tariff. This opens a sizable door for the company to access the Asian market, though regulatory and geopolitical headwinds are still in the picture.

Investor enthusiasm is running high on plans to deliver up to 80,000 H200 chips to China by mid‑February. Tech heavyweights like Alibaba and ByteDance are expected to show strong appetite, pending Beijing's final nod. Analysts at Raymond James project that NVIDIA's extra revenue from these sales could land somewhere between $7 billion and $12.5 billion.

Still, not everything is sunshine. Some people were caught off guard when top executives started offloading their shares. Board member Mark Stevens, for one, cashed out around $40 million in stock on December 19.

Another cloud on the horizon is a probe into the activities of a major chip buyer in Southeast Asia. The US Commerce Department is investigating Megaspeed for potentially smuggling technology to China, which could bring legal and reputational risks for NVIDIA, despite the company's insistence that it is playing by the rules.

From a technical standpoint, shares are riding in a steady uptrend. The recent breakout past $188.95 cements the bullish mood. Although the Stochastic Indicator points to overbought conditions and a near-term pullback could be due, the Chaikin Oscillator's positive reading signals that buying pressure and trading volumes are still calling the shots. This positions the stock to run to the next psychological hurdle at $190.00 in the coming days.

Consider the following plan for your trading:

Buy NVIDIA stocks near $186.00. Place Take profit at $198.00. Set Stop loss at $181.00.

This forecast is valid from December 24 till December 31, 2025.