NVIDIA stock bounces back as geopolitical heat cools

On April 8, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares bounced back to $177.79, recovering from a local dip that had knocked them down to $163.90. The turnaround was sparked by a noticeable drop in the geopolitical risk premium. Even with the Strait of Hormuz still blockaded, the market has begun to bet on a diplomatic resolution to the standoff. 

This broader context is important because tech stocks and major indices had been walking on eggshells in recent days, squeezed by the prospect of a complete waterway shutdown and the energy price shock that could follow. Then came a sigh of relief with the news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran after the April 7–8 ultimatum lapsed. Such a development defused the most acute phase of the crisis. By Wednesday, a revived wave of optimism is expected to sweep through the trading floor.

But don't get too comfortable. The upside has a ceiling. Investigations into Super Micro and Malaysian operator Megaspeed—both facing allegations of smuggling NVIDIA accelerators to China—are nudging Washington toward fresh export restrictions that could seriously shrink the firm's market reach. Add to that the fragility of the Iranian ceasefire, and you have a recipe for extra trouble. Any resurgent tensions in the Persian Gulf could cause oil prices and inflation expectations to spike in the blink of an eye. 

Technicals tell their own story. On the daily chart, the stock has climbed back to $177.79 after touching a local low near $163.90. The Chaikin Oscillator is now rising sharply. In fact, it has just exited negative territory—a bullish signal that volume is stacking up on the upside, underscoring the strength behind the current rebound. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Indicator has sunk into oversold depths. Its %K line is starting to flatten and could soon cross below the %D one from top to bottom. This technical setup paves the way for a short-term pullback, unless trading volumes continue to fuel the bullish move. 

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Buy NVIDIA stock in the $174–$178 range. Place Take profit at $186. Set Stop loss at $170.

This forecast holds true from April 8 till April 15, 2026.