Silver poised to break free from descending channel

On the daily chart, silver (XAGUSD) is trying to claw its way higher, rising back toward $66 per ounce. However, the precious metal is still trapped in a descending channel that has persisted for quite some time.  

Since mid‑May, the price has been on a relentless downhill march, losing nearly 31% in just four weeks—from a local top of $89.359 to a bottom of $61.497. The descent was smooth but brutal, punctuated by heavy bearish candles that left little doubt about sellers' control. Today's pop offers a flicker of hope, though it is probably just a brief reprieve within the broader downtrend. A true reversal would require closing above the channel's upper limit.

The Moving Average of Oscillator (OsMA) backs up this cautious take. After peaking early on, the bar chart dived deep into the red, hitting a low on June 11. This suggests that the price and momentum have been in perfect sync at the bottom of the trend. From that point on, the bar chart has started to narrow—a sign that bears are losing their grip, yet the indicator remains firmly below zero.

The Chaikin Oscillator is also flashing a change in the wind. Throughout the slide, it hugged negative ground, confirming that sellers were running the show. Nevertheless, on June 10, it bottomed out and began to recover, nearly crossing the zero line on June 16—the first whisper that buyers were beginning to stir. It backed off in the days that followed, but it is now pointing north again. This is textbook behavior for a market in transition, where the volume dynamic is slowly tilting away from bears.

On the fundamental front, silver is getting a modest lift today: prices rose as oil tumbled on news of a US-Iran peace roadmap, thus easing inflation fears. But caution still hangs in the air ahead of the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred cost-of-living gauge. With the door still open to further interest rate hikes, the ceiling on silver's upside looks firmly in place. 

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Buy silver from the current level. Place Take profit at $70.45. Set Stop loss at $61.40.

This forecast holds true from June 22 till June 29, 2026.