Silver has been on a wild ride over the past seven days. After the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the precious metal surged to $60, only to be knocked back to around $57 by Friday as the dollar regained its footing. Right now, it is climbing higher once again, hovering near $58 per troy ounce.
What's behind the latest flip? A combination of a softer greenback and sliding oil prices, sparked by the US decision to hold off on new strikes against Iran and keep the diplomatic door open. Cheaper crude has alleviated some inflation concerns, reducing the perceived urgency for further monetary tightening. At the same time, the threat of fresh conflict is still in play, keeping silver's safe‑haven appeal intact.
The Fed's July 29 meeting added another layer of intrigue. Interest rates were left untouched at 3.50%–3.75%, though the vote revealed a fracture beneath the surface—three Committee members pushed for a 25‑basis‑point hike, citing a resilient economy and inflation that refuses to stay below 2%. The absence of a clear signal on September tightening initially lifted precious metals, but for silver, the real test is still to come: this week's US employment data. A strong print would boost the dollar and reinforce rate‑hike expectations, while a weak number could be the spark that sends it higher.
On the industrial demand side, the headwinds are unmistakable. China's manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2—a sobering reminder of contraction in the world's second‑largest economy. This is a critical factor for silver, which is a key component in everything: from electronics and EVs to solar panels.
From a technical perspective, silver has been trapped in the $55.50–$61.00 range for more than a month. Volatility has steadily compressed, revealing that the market is preparing for a significant move. The longer this flat grind persists, the more explosive the breakout is likely to be. And with the fundamental backdrop still pointing in the wrong direction, a push toward the lower end of the range seems more probable.
The final recommendation:
— Sell silver at the current price ($58.20), aiming to reach $55.50 within two weeks.
— To keep risks in check, place a Stop Loss order at $61.00 in case the market plays against us.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
