The precious metals fell yesterday after the US economic data release. Almost all of this week's rising momentum weakened.
Yesterday's ADP data on US employment growth pointed to a strong labor market despite the risk of a recession caused by tight monetary policy. Investors are now preparing for the release of June nonfarm payrolls data to get additional signals about the Fed's policy trajectory.
KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer thinks the unstable US labor market is an effective argument for the Fed to raise the benchmark interest rate.
The official nonfarm payrolls data will be released today. The data is likely to come in stronger than expected, which will have a negative effect on precious metals.
Analysts' projections for gold and silver are also changing for the worse.
Analysts at Bank of America worsened their outlook on prices of all major precious metals. The negative revaluation is related to the expectations of a new interest rate hike by the leading central banks.
The forecast for the silver price worsened to $22.89 from $24.55 per ounce. As the world's leading economies are growing at a much slower pace, industrial demand for silver will be subdued. In 2024, however, analysts expect silver to rise more significantly than gold as the global economy recovers.
According to the technical analysis, silver prices fell yesterday to the lower boundary of an uptrend. This trend is best seen on the hourly timeframe. There might be a breakout of the boundary and a continuation of the downward trend against the background of negative fundamentals. In this case, a flag pattern is formed. It is a pattern of trend continuation, in this case of a downward trend. A flag pattern is characterized by a countertrend. The range of fluctuations also should not be too wide.
The downside target will be the level of the last days' lows, which corresponds to the price of $22.3. If the price goes above the rectangle, a Stop loss could be set on the hour timeframe at $22.9.
Decrease in the price of silver:
Take profit — 22.3
Stop-loss — 22.9