Silver prices have recently seen a moderate rise, breaking through the $31 per ounce mark. This increase was possible due to the Trump administration's decision to temporarily reduce import tariffs for some US trading partners for 90 days. However, uncertainty over trade policy and the ongoing dispute between the US and China are keeping market volatility high. On Monday, April 14, the opening price was $31.91.
High US tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports remain in place, increasing economic tensions between the world's two largest economies. This situation continues to support safe-haven demand, although silver has traditionally underperformed gold in this role. Nevertheless, the metal remains sensitive to changes in macroeconomic conditions and trade policy, making its price movement dependent on news regarding trade negotiations and monetary authorities’ decisions.
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains one of the key factors influencing silver's dynamics. Traders are forecasting a drop in US interest rates of around 80 basis points by the end of 2025, which could support the metal as it traditionally performs well when rates are lower. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting also indicate a concern among officials about the risk of stagflation, suggesting it could influence the regulator's future decisions.
Inflation expectations remain mixed. On the one hand, US producer prices unexpectedly fell by 0.4% in March, possibly signaling a near-term easing of inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the imminent introduction of new import tariffs could accelerate price growth in the coming months, raising concerns about sticky inflation. Such uncertainty creates a challenging situation for the silver market, as the direction of its price movement is not obvious.
Technical analysis suggests that the silver market has entered a corrective phase as of April 14. The Stochastic Oscillator still hovers near the overbought zone, but is already showing signs of a change in momentum. The %K line remains above the %D line, signaling the recent upward momentum. However, the bearish pressure is increasing and the Stochastic Oscillator is likely to reverse down soon, giving a clear sign of the unfolding correction.
Despite the current correction, the trend line indicates that the bullish trend is still in place.
Current recommendation:
Buy within the range of 30–32. Take profit — 33. Stop loss — 29.9.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
