Delayed tariff implementation may push silver to $35.650

Silver prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump effectively delayed reinstating his broad reciprocal tariffs, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. At the time of writing, the opening price stood at $36.5950.

The US administration’s economic decisions have increased market uncertainty, which typically supports precious metals, but silver has moved in the opposite direction. New tariff threats against countries without US agreements reduced risk appetite, though not enough to boost safe-haven demand. Additionally, improving American employment figures have strengthened the Federal Reserve’s position, making rate cuts less likely and further undermining silver’s support.

The physical precious metals market is worsening silver’s downturn. Sales of silver products by the Perth Mint, a key market player, fell to a five-month low in June, signaling weaker demand from both investors and collectors. Meanwhile, a 16% surge in gold coin sales highlights a shift toward the more traditional safe haven. This divergence likely reflects silver’s stronger dependence on industrial demand compared to gold.

Concerns over the long-term financial impact of Trump's tax cut bill are also weighing on the market, as increased government debt could lead to higher inflation and erode confidence in the dollar.

The greenback's decline to 2021 lows against the euro should theoretically support precious metals like silver by making them cheaper for foreign buyers. But this boost isn't enough to offset other negative pressures.

Currently, the stochastic oscillator shows the market is overbought, increasing chances of further downside. However, a true bearish reversal would only occur if prices consolidate below key support levels like 37.300.

Current recommendation:

Sell at the current price. Take profit – 35.650. Stop loss – 37.300.