Today, September 15, 2025, the S&P 500 (SPX) index opened at 6,588.7. Market dynamics have recently been driven by investor confidence in an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). These expectations have intensified after the release of weak data on the US labor market and inflation, pointing to a probable economic slowdown and higher chances of a Fed dovish stance.
The market projects almost a 100% likelihood of a rate cut at the central bank’s meeting on September 17, with investor attention mostly focused on Jerome Powell’s comments and updated macroeconomic forecasts, including the regulator's dot plot. Any signs of caution or reluctance among officials to loosen monetary policy could trigger a short-term correction, as current quotes already factor in deeper easing.
However, a series of weak labor market data, such as a significant downward revision in employment figures and a rise in jobless claims, strengthens the case for a longer-term dovish scenario. If the Fed confirms its intention to cut rates further in order to support the national economy, the stock market could rally. While the impact of Trump’s tariffs on inflation remains limited, the central bank has room for maneuver.
From a technical perspective, the S&P index keeps trading within an ascending channel on the daily chart. The price is now close to the mid-channel. The RSI indicator (14) is at 71, suggesting strong bullish momentum and an approach to overbought territory but not signaling an imminent reversal. Given that quotes are still trading in the lower half of the channel, these conditions create favorable opportunities for opening long positions, especially with the support of the lower boundary.
Take a close look at the following trading strategy:
Buy SPX at the current price. Take profit: 6,710.0. Stop loss: 6,517.0.
The forecast remains valid from September 15 to September 22, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
