The current capitalization of the top 10 US big tech firms exceeds the total market share of all publicly traded European companies. This figure is twice the combined value of Canada, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, and Israel, and three times that of Japan, despite the latter hitting a record peak. Since January 2025, developed markets beyond the US have posted returns twice as high as those in America, rebounding from years of lagging performance. This contrasts with the country's cumulative growth of 112.1% since December 2019, which is more than double the 50% seen in other nations.
According to various estimates, the US market has about $35 trillion in excess capitalization. Developed states outside of America account for an additional $14–$15 trillion, bringing the total to nearly $50 trillion. The key driver of this inflated valuation is an AI sector bubble, initially triggered by major tech companies. Their sway, estimated at a 1:4 ratio, subsequently dragged down other spheres and had a lingering effect on all related industries. Within the investment community, a consensus is forming that the stock market is in a bubble. The central debate is no longer about its existence, but rather its duration—whether a collapse will begin imminently or unfold over the next 5 to 10 years. Traders who anticipate a major correction in the US should consider selling the S&P 500 index.
The ultimate recommendation is to sell SPX. Profits are taken at $6,150. Stop loss is placed at $6,800.
The volume of your open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
