S&P 500 stages recovery amid lingering market doubts

After last week's decline, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is showing tentative signs of stabilizing, with futures edging higher as the market searches for a bottom. But it's not out of the woods yet. Strong headwinds are still in play from worries that artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are overpriced, all while the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move remains a big question mark.

The fear of an AI bubble has reached a fever pitch. It's so intense that even NVIDIA's stellar earnings couldn't quell it. The real core of the issue is that investors are spooked by the massive debt tech giants are piling on to fund their ambitions. This spending is threatening their cash flows and making the entire sector vulnerable, effectively putting a lid on any stock market recovery.

Such a negative landscape is further shaped by mixed September employment figures and record-low consumer confidence, both indicating a cooling labor market and deteriorating household sentiment. This uncertainty adds more and more pressure on the US regulator to begin a rate-cutting cycle. Statements from Fed officials, particularly John Williams, have revived hopes for a December reduction, and this has become a key driver for the fragile improvement in mood. Derivatives markets are now seeing a 60% chance of this happening. 

From a technical standpoint, the current setup remains delicate. As of today, November 24, 2025, the market is heading downward, though there has been a corrective attempt. The Stochastic Indicator, positioned at the low end of the neutral range (40, 34), supports this trend and shows early signs of a pickup, pointing to a new rebound. Concurrently, the Chaikin Oscillator, albeit still negative, is improving, signaling that selling pressure has begun to subside. Altogether, they paint a picture of a market that's fighting to stage a local recovery.

Take into account the trading plan down below:

Buy SPX at the current price ($6,630). Take profit: $6,760. Stop loss: $6,500.

This forecast is valid from November 24 till November 28, 2025.