Selling ​​SPX down to $6,630

As of April 13, 2026, the forecast for the S&P 500 Index is cautiously tilted to the downside. Geopolitical nerves are frayed, and earnings season is lurking around the corner. The market had pinned its hopes on the Pakistan talks, but after 21 hours of non-stop negotiations, there was nothing to show for it. No deal. No handshake. Just silence.

This failure is quickly deflating last week's optimism and shoving SPX back into the danger zone—thanks to oil prices that refuse to budge lower. 

Adding fuel to the fire, earnings season kicks off with reports from banking giants like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. Traditionally, this brings volatility to the table. The market is bracing for earnings growth in the 12.5%–19% range. However, a shadow is hanging over the celebration: rising fuel costs threaten to sour those forecasts. Polymarket, for instance, puts the odds of a negative close—up to 95% at the opening bell. Concurrently, S&P 500 futures have already been flashing red for the regular session.

As if that weren't enough, US inflation is proving to be sticky, and investors are being forced to rewrite their rate assumptions. March delivered a gut punch with a 0.9% monthly surge, thus pushing the annual figure to 3.3%. In fact, this is a headwind for stock valuations, as a rising Consumer Price Index (CPI) chews into the real value of future profits. Since the conflict erupted, SPX has shed about 6%.

Meanwhile, the American labor market remains resilient on the surface, but beneath it, cracks are starting to show. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3%, yet the number of long-term jobless jumped by 322,000—a clear sign that finding new work is becoming a struggle for many.

Wage growth eased to 3.5% year-over-year, the slowest pace in half a decade. The Federal Reserve (Fed) would like to see this reading at 3% or below to feel confident about hitting its 2% inflation target. But for now, the labor market's resilience gives the central bank enough cover to keep borrowing costs elevated (3.5%–3.75%) for longer than traders had hoped. 

Big banks like Wells Fargo have already started walking back their rate cut calls for 2026. Put it all together—lackluster GDP growth (2.0%–2.4%) and the CPI accelerating due to external shocks—and you've got all the ingredients for stagflation. For SPX, such a recipe doesn't leave much room for upside.

The overall recommendation is to sell the S&P 500 index. Place Take Profit at $6,630. Set Stop Loss at $6,950.

Always size the position so that your potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss) is no more than 1% of your account balance. If you can't open a position that meets such a risk criterion, it's safer to skip this trade and wait for a better, lower-risk opportunity.