Selling SPX down to $6,850 as index hits record high

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has reached an all-time high ($7,033), soaring roughly 10% from its March lows in just 15 trading sessions. What lit the fuse? President Trump's talk of an imminent resolution to the Middle East standoff and the White House's confirmation of new negotiations coming into play in Pakistan.

But look under the hood, and the picture gets murky. This rally has been a one-man show, with the Fabulous Five stealing the spotlight. These names alone have accounted for about 40% of the index's gains since last month. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted SPX—where size doesn't matter—has trailed its market-cap alternative by four percentage points over the same period. This is not a sign of a healthy, widespread advance. Rather, it is a red flag revealing narrow leadership, fragile momentum, and a setup ripe for a stumble.

Market sentiment has also veered into dangerous territory. The CBOE put-to-call ratio has just hit its lowest level since 2019. In other words, hardly anyone is buying downside protection. Instead, investors are piling into bets on continued upside. Such a herd mentality is extremely fragile. One piece of bad news could send quotes into a tailspin.

On the charts, the SPX has been climbing steadily since late March. Today, April 16, 2026, the index continues to drift higher, testing local peaks near $7,039.8. However, there is a catch. Trading volumes during this rally remain stubbornly lower than they were during the March decline—a classic sign that buying pressure is thinning out even as prices rise. Adding to the concern, the Chaikin Oscillator, while still positive, has begun to roll over. This subtle yet powerful signal indicates that bullish momentum is losing steam. The writing is on the wall: a correction or at least a period of consolidation may be right around the corner. 

For those looking to take action, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Sell SPX at the current price, which is near an all-time high. Lock in profits at $6,850. Place Stop loss at $7,120.

This forecast holds true from April 16 till April 23, 2026.