Invest in SPX as job growth holds steady

As of June 4, 2026, the S&P 500 Index is stuck in limbo, hovering near record highs in the $7,600–$7,620 zone. The market is holding its breath ahead of tomorrow's make-or-break Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, which will decide whether SPX finally punches through resistance at $7,700 or takes a nosedive toward support at $7,340. 

New employment data will be the moment of truth. The consensus is calling for job growth of around 100,000, with the percentage of people out of work expected to tick up to 4.3%. In fact, several potential outcomes are on the table:

Soft landing scenario (+80K to +120K). This would be a Goldilocks outcome for the S&P 500 Index—not too hot, not too cold. Moderate growth could confirm the economy's staying power without pushing it into an overstretched state. In this case, SPX may vault to $7,700.

Overheating scenario (> +150K). Scorching numbers would spook investors, raising the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as June—a prospect the market sees as a mere 1% long shot. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has already waved a yellow flag, warning that Middle East tensions could fan inflation and force the regulator to flip the script on monetary policy. 

Cooling scenario (< +60K). A disappointingly weak report would pour gasoline on recession fears. The labor market has recently shown cracks, with the public sector slowing down and new jobs concentrated in healthcare and transportation—hardly a recipe for a lasting recovery.

Then there is the stock connection. The 10 largest companies now account for a record 43.2% of the index's weight. This AI-fueled bubble, with NVIDIA, Microsoft, and IBM in the lead, is extremely sensitive to the cost of money. If the looming jobs data reveal accelerating inflation (wage growth is forecast at 3.8% year-over-year), Treasury yields will spike, thus hammering tech multiples in the process.

Adding fuel to the fire, oil prices have surged after negotiations with Iran fell apart. This geopolitical backdrop makes tomorrow's employment data even more critical for gauging inflation expectations.

With moderate job growth as the baseline, the immediate upside target for the S&P 500 Index is the nearby resistance ceiling at $7,590.

The ultimate recommendation is to buy SPX if tomorrow's NFP report falls within the range of 80,000 to 120,000. Lock in profits at $7,590. Place Stop Loss at $7,500.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.