The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is currently trading near $7,715, drawing its main support from strong performance in tech stocks and unwavering investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
So, what's standing in the way of further gains? Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy remains the biggest threat. Since the September rate hike, officials have sounded the alarm over persistent inflationary pressure. Concurrently, the yield on 10‑year US Treasury bonds surged above 5.2% last week—levels not witnessed in nearly two decades. The market is now pricing in a 66% chance of another increase at the late October meeting, which is a massive jump from under 10% a month ago.
But there is still room for optimism. This week, the spotlight turns to inflation data and the September jobs report. Softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings or signs of a cooling labor market could take some heat off rate hike expectations and give stocks a much‑needed boost. Oil's late-week slide, sparked by hopes of easing Middle East tensions, offered welcome relief by slightly easing inflation worries.
Now, what do the charts say? From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 Index is still in an uptrend, holding above the 50-day moving average. The next upside target could be $7,815, which aligns with historical highs.
The ultimate recommendation is to buy SPX at the current level ($7,715), aiming to reach $7,815 within two weeks. To keep risk in check if the market moves against us, place a Stop Loss order at $7,650.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.