Invest in S&P 500 with 7,600 in view amid reduced volatility

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) started today’s session at 7,491.2, trying to recover from a 0.28% drop the previous day. The key pressure factor for stocks remains a sudden escalation of the Middle East conflict. Recent news of a rupture in the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, along with the actual blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a surge in oil prices and brought back inflation fears.

These concerns have amplified the impact of the latest FOMC minutes from June, which revealed that several committee members under the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, are considering further policy tightening to combat stubborn consumer prices. That said, the market reaction was surprisingly measured, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish rhetoric has yet to be backed by concrete facts and deadlines. Until then, this stance is likely to have only a short-term effect on sentiment.

The semiconductor segment has had a more pronounced influence on the market, helping NASDAQ to stay in the green zone despite a broader decline across indexes. The expansion of the Broadcom-Apple agreement to manufacture components in the US, as well as Chinese companies’ willingness to increase their purchases of NVIDIA H200 chips, suggests that capital is not fleeing the stock market but merely rotating across sectors. This is more typical of an accumulation phase than of a full-blown sell-off.

US jobless claims data will shape SPX dynamics in the coming days. These readings are expected to shed light on the Fed’s future monetary trajectory. Another important factor is the creeping earnings season: PepsiCo, Progressive, and Cintas are all due to report their financial results this week.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 Index is now carefully climbing. The Chaikin Oscillator remains in positive territory, signaling ongoing capital inflows. Meanwhile, the shrinking Average True Range (ATR) points to reduced volatility. The combination of these two factors often precedes a decisive impulse. The current market environment seems favorable for a short-term rally.

Pay attention to the following trading plan:

Buy SPX from 7,491. Place Take profit at 7,600 and Stop loss at 7,420.

This forecast remains valid between July 9 and July 16, 2026.