SPX may retreat to 5,980 following all-time high

On June 30, 2025, the US stock market is rallying, driven by positive investor sentiment and progress in trade negotiations. The S&P 500 index has reached a record high, bolstered by expectations of reduced tariffs and improved conditions for major technology companies. The index opened at 6,170.8 on Monday.

A key growth catalyst was the agreement between the United States and China to expedite the supply of rare earth metals, which helped ease trade tensions.

However, risks tied to tax reform and trade relations remain significant. The advancement of Trump’s bill through the Senate could exacerbate national debt concerns. Trade negotiations remain fraught: while the US and Canada have temporarily paused their dispute following the repeal of the digital tax, President Trump continues to threaten new tariffs, adding to market uncertainty. These developments could heighten volatility and erode investor confidence.

Despite these risks, individual investors are actively pouring into the US stock market, particularly favoring companies with long-term growth potential, such as those in artificial intelligence. However, the market’s rally appears narrowly supported, concentrated on a limited number of index leaders. The broader US economy has yet to show sufficient signs of sustained recovery to justify current valuation levels.

Technically, the market suggests a potential slowdown in growth. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63, remaining in the neutral zone but approaching the upper limit (70). This indicates persistent buying pressure, though proximity to the overbought level may signal a possible slowdown in growth. While the On Balance Volume (OBV) continues to rise, confirming the uptrend, its growth rate has slowed compared to previous days. This deceleration hints at waning upward momentum following the historic high, increasing the likelihood of a correction in the coming days.

Current recommendation:

Selling during a correction at the current price. Take profit – 5980. Stop loss – 6320.