Breaking $6,415 for SPX will unlock path towards $6,435

For the rest of the week, the stock market will be focused on whether Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole conference align with their expectations for a new rate cut. The regulator's meeting is scheduled for September 16–17. The key story behind this discussion is the ambiguous, weak July employment report. Investors believe these data warrant a policy shift, and they anticipate Powell to move in that direction.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, down from over 95% last week. Previous forecasts have provided strong ground for the greenback and put pressure on the stock market quotes. This followed higher-than-anticipated Producer Price Inflation (PPI) in the US, which tempered expectations, though market players still forecast over 50 basis points of borrowing cost reductions for the year.

If Powell doesn't send any signals that he's in favor of a less hawkish approach, there's a good chance that a September rate cut won't happen. This could put pressure on the S&P 500 (SPX). However, a confirmation of an easing path would provide support for the market. Such a scenario, accompanied by a break above $6,400 and $6,415, would pave the way for the index to $6,435.

The overall recommendation is to buy SPX from the $6,415 level. Profits should be taken at $6,435. Stop loss is placed at $6,405. 

The volume of your open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance doesn't allow opening a position of this size, it's better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.