Selling Tesla shares ahead of delivery report

On Monday, Tesla shares closed at $442.39, almost identical to their opening price. The market had previously shown strong momentum, fueled by enthusiasm surrounding the expected third-quarter (Q3) delivery statements scheduled for October 2–3. 

Right now, the fundamental outlook for the company is mixed. Optimism stems from the potential for delivery figures to exceed the consensus estimate of 448,000 vehicles. September's rally, which drove stocks up 32%, was supported by Elon Musk's renewed operational focus and positive investor sentiment for AI and robotaxis. However, this wave of favorable advancements has already been reflected in the stock's present valuation.

The US corporation is still facing substantial headwinds. A potential overshoot in Q3 deliveries may be a temporary surge propelled by consumers trying to make purchases before the federal EV tax credit expired at the end of September. This poses a risk to Q4 demand. Concurrently, supply growth has been stagnant for two years and is now declining from its Q4 2023 peak.

From a technical perspective, Tesla's daily chart exhibits strong bullish momentum that is displaying signs of exhaustion. The RSI (14) sits at 82, deep in overbought territory, suggesting buyer fatigue is imminent. Although the Chaikin Oscillator continues its ascent, confirming that positions are still being accumulated, it has failed to reach new highs. Together, these indicators signal a potential slowdown or reversal of the current trend, revealing that bullish momentum is waning, and the market may be preparing for a correction or consolidation.

Investors are currently positioned for an extremely positive outcome. This creates a high risk that traders may begin to take profits regardless of the actual report figures, adhering to the rule of thumb: "Buy the rumor, sell the fact".

Consider the following trading strategy:

Sell Tesla shares around the quarterly delivery data release or when the stock approaches $470.00. Take profit: $390.00. Stop loss: $480.00.

This forecast is valid from September 30 to October 7, 2025.