USDCAD challenges key resistance as bulls lose their grip

As of May 15, 2026, the daily USDCAD chart shows that the uptrend remains technically viable. However, the health of the rally is increasingly suspect. The pair climbed to 1.37561 during morning trading. Yet, beneath the surface, indicators tell a more guarded story.

The Chaikin Oscillator remains positive, suggesting that capital continues to flow into the asset. Since May 8, however, its line has gradually turned lower, even as the price reached new highs. This is a classic bearish divergence, a quiet warning that buying momentum is leaking out, even though the move still looks convincing on paper. 

The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) adds another layer of concern. Out of the eight up days since the start of the month, only three—May 4, 6, and 12—were backed by genuine volume growth and marked by green bars. The rest ended with blue or brown bars, meaning that the pair drifted higher on autopilot, without real demand behind it. Today's attempt to consolidate near the 1.37561 resistance is unfolding in exactly this environment, which makes the breakout far less reliable. If a pullback takes hold, the first support levels are the Fibonacci retracements at 1.37080 (23.6%) and 1.36780 (38.2%). 

On the fundamental front, the wind is still at the dollar's back. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 40% probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to stay on hold. Such a policy divergence is evident in the bond markets, where the two-year yield spread has ballooned to 105 basis points—its widest since January. The only factor tempering the greenback's rise is oil, which is still perched above $101 per barrel. Crude traditionally gives the loonie a good lift. More direction will be revealed on Tuesday, when Canadian economic data hits the tape.

For those looking to act, consider the trading plan down below:

Sell USDCAD at the current price (1.37400). Place Take profit 1 at 1.37080 and Take profit 2 at 1.36780. Set Stop loss at 1.37600.

This forecast holds true from May 15 till May 22, 2026.